By:
Cynthia M. Lardner
Introduction
The Russian
Federation, when examined as the antagonist, views itself as having been left
disconnected from post-World War Two Europe. Russia believes itself to be
irrevocably tied to Europe dating back to the Byzantine Era. When the Cold War ended Russia expected to be
accepted by the West. This never fully materialized, leaving Russian President
Vladimir Putin feeling dismembered. With heightening geopolitical tensions,
especially in the European Union, it is critical to understand Mr. Putin’s long
term strategy. When events over the last three years are examined together, not
only does there exists a threat of conflict on European soil and cyberwar but,
there also exists a very real threat to the Western world of another new genre
of warfare: economic warfare.
The Lavrov Statement
Understanding
what Mr. Putin was and is thinking can now be best understood in the context of
a March 3, 2016 statement by Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s Minister of Foreign
Affairs:
“While the rapidly developing Moscow
state naturally played an increasing role in European affairs, the European
countries had apprehensions about the nascent giant in the East and tried to
isolate it whenever possible and prevent it from taking part in Europe’s most
important affairs.
During at least the past two centuries any attempts to unite Europe without Russia
and against it have inevitably led to grim tragedies, the consequences of which
were always overcome with the decisive participation of our country (Emphasis
Added).”
Emphasizing
Russia’s growing relationship with China and its other partners, including the
BRICS, Lavrov stated that globalisation has led to the United States and the
European Union’s demise as the leading global economic powers and political
influencers, and to the emergence of “new and large centres of power”.
This was
followed by the assertion that, “A reliable solution to the problems of the
modern world can only be achieved through serious and honest cooperation
between the leading states and their associations in order to address common
challenges.”
Lavrov
concluded that, “[W]e are not seeking confrontation with the United States, or
the European Union, or NATO. On the contrary, Russia is open to the widest
possible cooperation with its Western partners. We continue to believe that the
best way to ensure the interests of the peoples living in Europe is to form a
common economic and humanitarian space from the Atlantic to the Pacific, so
that the newly formed Eurasian Economic Union could be an integrating link
between Europe and Asia Pacific.”
Sino-Russian Partnership
Perhaps then
it is ultimately not just what Mr. Putin is thinking but, also what the
aspirations are of Chinese President Xi Jinping, with respect, not as to the
Middle East, but as to Europe. When
events are read together, the two countries share expansionist and extremist
policies, each with their own set of alliances, under which both countries
aspire to wield greater global leadership.
A
contemporary starting place for analyzing the Sino-Russian relationship is July
17, 2014, when a number of seemingly unrelated events occurred. The day prior, the European Union imposed
economic sanctions against the Russia Federation for its annexation of Crimea
in violation of international law and the 1994 Budapest Agreement, followed by
President Barack Obama announcing that the United States was also imposing
sanctions; ultimately toppling the ruble.
Hours later, a Malaysian plane was shot down over the Ukraine by Russian
mercenaries. This was quickly followed by a statement released by China,
Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa, representing 40% of the world’s
population, that they were implementing the New Development Bank or The BRICS,
to provide funding to those countries previously unable to secure financing for
essential sustainable infrastructures from the World Bank (WB) and the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Six months
later, on February 2, 2015, obscured by an international community divided over
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, China struck a potentially deadly blow to
global financial stability when it announced that it was not only moving ahead
in launching its Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) but that it was
expanding to welcome founding members from the West, of which all 28 NATO
members, save the United States, joined within months. There are now 56 AIIB member nations and
another 30 countries awaiting approval.
“The founding
and opening of the AIIB also means a great deal to the reform of the global
economic governance system,” stated Mr. Jinping at the January 16, 2016 AIIB
inauguration.
The AIIB and
its ‘junior partner’, The BRICS, were set up to compete with the WB and IMF,
intending to ultimately issue its own currency to devalue the Euro and the
dollar.
“The BRICS is
expected to usher in a pair of institutions, a development bank and a currency
reserve fund, that they hope will diminish Western control of the global
financial system,” stated Stewart M. Patrick, director of CFR's International
Institutions and Global Governance Program.
"The
AIIB is a challenge to the existing global economic order,” stated Robert Kahn,
Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics.
Such would be
the case if China and its partners called in their portion of the United States
National Debt; $17.6 trillion dollars or 15.9%.
In addition,
China and Russia, two of the five permanent United Nations Security Council
(UNSC) members, along with India, issued a statement supporting India’s bid for
one of the five permanent UNSC seats.
The statement
declared that the three nations, with China at the helm, would “build a more
just, fair and stable international political and economic order” and a ““multi-polar”
world”. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang
Yi proclaimed, “We advocate the principle of partnership rather than alliance."
In late 2015
Mr. Jinping made a state visit to Great Britain. India Prime Minister Naranda
Modi made state visits to 28 countries.
In Great Britain and beyond, China and India secured many private and
public sector contracts. India’s state
visits were partially motivated by its previous lack of cordial diplomatic
relations with North African and the Middle East; regions India needs to to
support its claim that it is a global leader meriting a permanent UNSC seat.
Inception of
The BRICS and AIIB has raised global concerns. The Office of the High Commissioner of Human
Rights is investigating whether projected project financing by The BRICS and
the AIIB would include safeguards to preclude human rights violations, such as slave
or child labor, underpayment of wages, forced evictions, and detentions. Further concern exists over a lack of articulated
environmental and anticorruption standards.
These concerns were manifest in previous projects funded by the Chinese
government.
Syria
As time went
on, the events of 2014 and 2015 fell off the front pages, replaced by news
story about the Syrian War and the related terrorist attacks in California,
Paris and Brussels.
Russia’s
September 2015 entry into the Syrian War was reported to insure that Mr.
Putin’s ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, remained in power. It is questionable whether Mr. Putin’s move
was a smokescreen allowing him to achieve another objective: destabilizing the European Union.
Russian
bombing in Syria was targeted in and around Aleppo, near the Turkish border. NATO and other leaders asserted that Russia
had weaponized Syrians; escalating the number of refugee seekers. The refugee
crisis has created widespread dissension within Europe, which has been struggling
to cope with the staggering numbers of refugees. There are 4,883,643 Syrian refugees registered
by the United Nations; making it the largest humanitarian crisis the world has
faced since World War II.
Munich Security Conference
At the
February 12-14, 2016 Munich Security Conference (MSC), Russian Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev’s echoed Lavrov’s statements; calling the state of diplomacy
between Russia and the West a new Cold War.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and NATO's Supreme Allied
Commander General Philip Breedlove disagreed.
A Syrian ceasefire
was negotiated at the MSC to allow participants time to reconvene in March to
further discuss a nonmilitary resolution, and so that humanitarian aid could be
delivered to Syria.
At the MSC
conference, the issue of Russia’s failure to honor the Minsk Protocol, intended
to resolve the Russian-Ukrainian conflict was raised.
On March 14,
2016, as the parties reconvened in Geneva, Russia only announced that it was
pulling out of Syria at the same time Russian-backed separatists staged one their
biggest Ukrainian offenses, fueling speculation as to Mr. Putin’s long range motives.
Europe and the United States
Mr. Putin’s goal
is to undermine the European Union by causing destabilization as the European
Union represents democracy, is based on Rule of Law, and is ideologically
different from Russia, stated Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize Russian Scholar, Director
of the Transitions Forum at the Legatum Institute, and an adjunct fellow of the
Center for European Policy Analysis.
European and United
States’ domestic and foreign policy has caused dissension within and between
nations. Natalie Nougayrède, a foreign
affairs commentator for The Guardian,
explained:
This year is one that arguably offers
Russia an unprecedented window of opportunity to push that demand. The refugee
crisis threatens key EU institutions, a referendum looms on the UK’s relationship
to Europe, the Franco-German couple is in dire straits, Angela Merkel is
politically weakened, Ukraine is unstable, populist movements are spreading
throughout the continent, the Balkans are experiencing new tensions, and the US
is busy with an election campaign imbued with isolationism.
“Europe when
united is a problem for them [the Russians]. It doesn't work when the whole of
Europe joins together,” stated Applebaum.
“Closer
cooperation between the EU and its eastern European partners – Armenia,
Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine – is a key element
in EU foreign relations,” states the European Union’s website.
Meanwhile,
Russia has strengthened its relationships with Western Europe and Germany. In 2014 Mr. Putin stated, “I expect that the
citizens of Germany will also support the aspiration of the Russians, of historical
Russia, to restore unity.” Presently, an
estimated 10-15% of all Germans support Mr. Putin.
Mr. Putin’s
authoritarian leadership is also admired by Czech Republic President Miloš
Zeman, Hungary Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and Serbian Prime Minister Alexander
Vucic.
Then there is
Poland; with Russia and Ukraine on its east and Germany and the Baltics on its
west, it is a natural target for Russia.
The United States is building a missile defense shield in Poland due to
be operational in 2018; stating it was to protect against Iranian
aggressions. Russia objected, stating
that the shield is being built to protect the West from an attack by Russia.
Russia,
having the world’s largest nuclear arsenal supported by a sprawling military
and civilian nuclear industry, boycotted the March 31-April 1 Nuclear Security
Summit, sparking concern as to whether Russia has or might sell nuclear weapons
or weapon making materials to a terrorist organization.
Igor Ivanov,
former Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs, stated that, "The risk of
confrontation with the use of nuclear weapons in Europe is higher than in the
1980s."
Ukraine and the European Union
The conflict
between Rule of Law and the Russian plutocracy is playing out in Ukraine and the
Baltic region.
In 2012 Ukraine
requested member state status in the European Union. While there is no indication that Ukraine
will be accepted as a European Union member, as part of the association
agreement between Ukraine and the European Union, the European Union is removing
trade barriers with Ukraine.
“Ukraine has
tied into mainstream European culture and life,” stated Applebaum.
“We can
express our identity in the framework of the European Union,” reflected Rabbi
Yaakov Dov Bleich, Chief Rabbi of Ukraine.
Mr. Putin
disagreed, stating, “Our concerns are understandable because we are not simply
close neighbours but, as I have said many times already, we are one people… Millions
of Russians and Russian-speaking people live in Ukraine and will continue to do
so. Russia will always defend their interests using political, diplomatic and
legal means.”
Rebutting Mr.
Putin’s assertion, Rabbi Bleich stated that 60% of Ukraine’s fighters are native
Russian speakers.
Mr. Putin additionally
stated that, “Russia has its legitimate concerns in the framework of trilateral
negotiations initiated by Russia, EU and Ukraine on gas issues and trade and
economic implications of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement implementation”
as Ukraine is the trade route by which oil is exported by Russia to Western
Europe.
“We should
recognize that the Ukraine is within the Russian sphere of influence,” stated
Vaidotas Verba, the Lithuanian Ambassador to the Netherlands.
Russia, Ukraine, the Baltic States and NATO
Since 1994 Ukraine
has been a NATO alliance partner. In
2010 Ukraine unsuccessfully sought to accede to NATO. The request was denied due to the Ukrainian
government’s failure to adhere to Rule of Law.
Olena Sotnyk,
a newly elected Ukrainian Parliament member and Head of the Subcommittee on the
Approximation of Ukrainian legislation to EU Law, stated "... that new
parliament is striving to adhere to Rule of Law via implementation of a good
number of legislative initiatives in the fields of human rights protection and
anti-corruption, initiatives that only two years ago seemed unrealistic in the
Ukrainian realities.”
In 2014,
following a change in governance, Ukraine renewed its request to accede to NATO. While Ukraine has not been invited to participate
in accession talks, it is a partner nation of NATO. In addition, of the 21 other countries
belonging to NATO’s Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council, several have also expressed
interest in acceding to NATO member nation status. Presently, only Montenegro has been invited
by NATO to participate in accession talks.
Every country
has the right "to belong or not to belong to international organizations,
to be or not to be a party to bilateral or multilateral treaties including the
right to be or not to be a party to treaties of alliance," according to
Article I of the Helsinki Final Act, which established the Organisation for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). All the OSCE member states, including Russia,
have sworn to uphold this principle.
Since 2015
NATO has increased its presence in Ukraine and throughout the Baltic States;
Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
“The reason
why NATO is adapting its military posture, especially in the eastern part of
the Alliance, is Russia’s military buildup over several years… In the Barents
Sea, the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea and now also in the Mediterranean. That’s
one of the reasons why we are adapting both by increasing the readiness of our
forces but also by increasing our presence in the Eastern part of our Alliance,”
stated Stoltenberg.
Russia interpreted
NATO’s eastern expansion as a sign of open hostility and warned that it will retaliate.
“We believe
that NATO’s policy towards Russia remains unfriendly and generally obdurate,”
stated Medvedev at the MSC.
Medvedev’s
statement conflicts with Stoltenberg’s contemporaneous statement that, “This
illustrates there are some challenges in the relationship between NATO and
Russia. It is exactly these challenges that make it important to keep channels
of political dialogue with Russia. They are open, we meet in different formats,
on different levels, we meet at the ambassadors’ level in Brussels, and the
NATO Russia Council meeting we are exploring to convene is at the ambassadors’
level. I met several times with Minister Lavrov. So we meet and we discuss. But
so far we have not been able to agree on how to convene a NRC [the United
States Nuclear Regulatory Commission] meeting.”
"I’m
afraid that Putin will create a really big crisis, like pick a fight with NATO,”
stated Applebaum.
Such a crisis
could include offensive action in the Baltic States, where there is a heavy
concentration of ethnic Russians. Ethnic
Russians represent 14.3% of the Lithuanian population; 27.6% of Latvia’s
population; and 24% of Estonia’s population.
Mr. Putin has previously stated that Russia has the right to intervene
to protect the rights of ethnic Russians in neighbouring countries.
The United
States is preparing for a Russian invasion in Ukraine or elsewhere in the
Baltic region, as evidenced by a Pentagon statement that the United States was
deploying an armored brigade to the Baltic region, with two more brigades to
follow in 2017.
Considering
such potentialities, NATO and Russia have agreed to meet.
"[T]here
will be no return to business as usual until Russia again respects
international law," stated Stoltenberg.
The Game of Thrones
Irrespective
of ideological differences, after the Cold War Era, Russia and the West shifted
from the Doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction to that of Mutual Assured
Security (MAS); where neither party has the intention or capability to exercise
a unilateral advantage over the other.
It is now uncertain whether Russia intends to abide by MAS.
Conditions
never favored full adaptation of MAS. Celeste
A. Wallander, an associate professor in the American University School of
International Service, a fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United
States, and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for
Russia/Ukraine/Eurasia, explained:
The problem with the U.S. position is
that Russia is not confident that conditions for strategic stability are met,
and therefore they are not. Since strategic stability is a condition in which
both parties are confident that each retains a secure retaliatory capability,
if either is not confident, the equation is at risk. To put it another way, it
does not help in a crisis. If the United
States is confident that no military strike could put Russia’s ability to
retaliate at risk if Russia believes that it would have to preempt for
survival. Because Russian analysts take
this seriously, U.S. policy needs to take this seriously.
“What we are
dealing with is a conflict between a western philosophy in which international
relations should be based on the Rule of Law, and the Russian one which tends
to think in terms of power and zones of influence. The view that the world order should be based
on the rule of law, is very much the view of a militarily impotent Europe and
more in particular that of small countries dependent on international trade
such as the Netherlands. The realistic
school of American foreign policy on the other hand entertains no such illusions
and views diplomacy as the application of power by nonmilitary means,” stated
Joost Dirkzwager, a retired Kingdom of the Netherlands career diplomat.
That same
analysis as to “zones of influence” can be applied to China, and to a lesser
degree, India. Although Russian and
Chinese foreign and military policies differ radically, they operate under a
similar ideology. While China is a superpower, Russia, due to its economic decline,
is not. Yet, the two countries are
working together, with Beijing wielding the greater influence.
When read as
a whole, not only does there exist the threat of conflict on European or even
on United States soil and cyberwar with China and Russia but, there also exists
a very real threat to the West of a new genre of warfare: economic warfare.
About the Author
Cynthia M. Lardner is a journalist, holding
degrees in journalism, law, and counseling psychology. Her blogs are read in
over 37 countries. As a thought leader
in the area of foreign policy, her philosophy is to collectively influence
conscious global thinking. Living in Den Hague or The Hague, she is currently
looking for a challenging position in foreign policy, journalism, or social
justice.
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From left to right, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, President of the Court, Sylvia Fernández de Gurmendi. and His Majesty King Wilhelm-Alexander of the Netherlands
Since its July 1, 2002 inception under the Rome Statute, the ICC has stood as an independent international organisation separate from the United Nations system. Recognised by 124 member states, it is a court of last resort, intervening only when member states are unwilling or unable to prosecute to prevent those guilty of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes from evading justice.
The author with Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
